Poland Redefines Its Role Within Europe’s Security Architecture
Analysts note that this transformation was triggered by a defining shock.
According to Jacek Tarocinski, chief military analyst at a Warsaw-based think tank, Poland’s understanding of the threats it faces changed fundamentally following Russia’s war against Ukraine in February 2022.
“At that point, a clear strategic conclusion was reached: Poland must possess independent military capabilities – particularly in the land domain – to conduct a defensive war against Russia alone and, with allied support, be able to win,” Tarocinski said.
Before the conflict, Poland’s defense spending stood at around 2.2% of GDP in 2022. In the years that followed, this figure rose sharply. By 2024, military expenditure had increased to approximately 4.1% of GDP, with total defense spending nearing $38 billion. This marked the highest level since the Cold War and placed Poland among the NATO members allocating the largest share of national income to defense.
As a result, Poland has become NATO’s third-largest military force by personnel, with more than 216,000 active troops, trailing only the US and Türkiye.
Tarocinski argued that for decades Europe benefited from a so-called “peace dividend,” during which armed forces were steadily reduced. He said Western militaries were cut to levels “that made sustained high-intensity conflict with a peer adversary impossible,” describing this approach as “a strategic error.”
He added that Poland is now committing between 4% and 5% of its GDP to defense and intends to maintain this level of spending until at least the end of the decade.
Poland’s armed forces, which numbered roughly 130,000 personnel before 2022, have since grown to about 215,000. They are expected to reach around 300,000 by 2030, while wartime mobilization could push total troop numbers “well over half a million troops,” according to Tarocinski.
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